The stock market week ahead opens with Dalal Street nursing a bruise. Nifty ended Friday, October 23 at 22,600, down 2.36% for the holiday-shortened week, and the damage further down the market cap ladder was far worse. Now comes a crowded five days: a US Federal Reserve decision, the Jio Platforms listing, a heavy Q2 results calendar and crude oil that refuses to cool off.
Where the stock market week ahead begins
Friday itself was messy. According to CNBC-TV18, Nifty opened 55 points higher, fell more than 400 points from its intraday high in the first half, and then clawed back over 200 points from the low, with more than 80 of those coming in the closing auction session. It still shed 87 points on the day, its fourth straight losing session. Livemint put the Sensex at 73,123.83, down 0.17% on Friday, and noted that Nifty’s year-to-date loss has stretched to about 13.56%.
The real pain sat in the broader market. CNBC-TV18 reported the Nifty Midcap 100 fell 5.6% over the week and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dropped more than 7%, its steepest weekly fall since February 2025. We covered that slide in detail in our smallcap weekly fall report.
The four things that will move prices
The Fed. The US Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28, and the Bank of Japan also has a rate decision due, CNBC-TV18 said. Any hint on the direction of US rates feeds straight into foreign fund flows here.
Crude and the rupee. CNBC-TV18 reported crude touching a five-month high on worries about Middle East supply, and the rupee slipping 12 paise on Friday to close at 94.94 against the dollar. LKP Securities’ Vatsal Bhuva told the channel a sustained move in Brent above $110 a barrel could weigh further on sentiment. For an oil-importing country, that is the number to keep an eye on.
Jio Platforms. The IPO closed for subscription on Friday and is scheduled to list on October 28, per CNBC-TV18. Livemint said allotment is likely to be finalised on Monday. A strong debut could lift the mood in the primary market; a flat one would hurt. Our IPOs this week roundup has the rest of the calendar.
Q2 results. Paytm, Tata Consumer Products, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki, Hindustan Unilever, Adani Ports, Trent, Sun Pharma and Bharat Electronics are among the names reporting this week, according to CNBC-TV18.
FII flows and the levels analysts are watching
Foreign investors have not turned the corner. SBI Securities’ Sudeep Shah told ET Markets that FIIs bought Rs 888 crore of equities in the cash market on October 23, but net outflows over the last five sessions stood at Rs 1,531 crore. He also pointed out that India VIX has risen nearly 41% since September 9 while Nifty has slipped nearly 3.5% over the same stretch.
On levels, there is broad agreement. HDFC Securities’ Nandish Shah flagged Friday’s low of 22,372 as immediate support, with 22,200 below it and resistance at 22,800 and 23,175. Sudeep Shah sees the 22,350-22,300 zone as support and 22,800-22,850, near the 20-day EMA, as the first hurdle. For Bank Nifty, which lost 638 points on Friday, he marked 53,700-53,800 as support and 54,900-55,000 as resistance. If you want to understand how these zones are drawn, our technical analysis guide for Indian stocks walks through it.
The one bright spot in the analyst commentary was IT, which Sudeep Shah flagged as relatively stronger. With Infosys results out on Friday, Livemint expects it, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Reliance Industries to be among the stocks in focus on Monday.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision.
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