Bank Stocks to Watch October 16, 2026: Federal Bank, PNB, Ujjivan Before Results

Our bank stocks to watch October 16 list has only three names, but there’s a lot riding on them. Federal Bank, Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank all post September-quarter (Q2 FY27) numbers on Friday, a day before HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Yes Bank pile into a Saturday results session. The three also walk in with very different Thursday closes. Federal Bank rose along with private banks, PNB fell with the PSU pack, and Ujjivan slipped on more than double its previous day’s volume.

The dates come from CNBC-TV18’s weekly results list, which has Federal Bank and Ujjivan SFB on Friday, October 16. PNB isn’t on that list, but its own exchange filing confirms an October 16 board meeting to approve Q2 results, as PSU Connect reported. Kalkine’s October 16 calendar names all three. For the broader market picture, read our Nifty outlook for October 16 and the stock market today hub.

Bank stocks to watch October 16: where Thursday left them

Thursday split the banking space down the middle. The Nifty Bank index ended at 55,810.50, up 0.89%, while the Nifty PSU Bank index lost 1.55% to 8,041.20, according to Univest’s October 15 closing review. The same review had private banks up 1.89% and the Nifty 50 at 22,997.35, up 1.66%. The Bank Nifty close lines up with the end-of-day print on Yahoo Finance’s Nifty Bank history.

CNBC-TV18’s October 16 trade setup said largecap banks powered a roughly 500-point jump in the Bank Nifty, which closed above 55,500 after briefly going past 56,000. It couldn’t stay there, partly because Yes Bank fell hard (our Yes Bank AT1 bonds explainer covers why). CNBC-TV18 also called Federal Bank “the most important result of Friday’s trade”.

Closing prices and day changes are from NSE bhavcopy-derived data on Bhavcopy.live (Federal Bank, PNB, Ujjivan SFB) and match Yahoo Finance’s end-of-day prints. Call times come from the sources cited in each section below.

Federal Bank: it all comes down to margins

October 15 close: Federal Bank gained 1.52% to ₹335, with a range of ₹329.80 to ₹336.20, per Bhavcopy.live. That put it 9.87% below its 52-week high of ₹371.70, and up 4.36% on the week. Volumes were thinner, though: 39.2 lakh shares traded against 69.2 lakh on October 14. So the stock heads into results within 10% of its high, but without a rush of fresh buying behind it.

Last quarter: In Q1 FY27, Federal Bank’s net profit grew 36.6% year-on-year to ₹1,176.9 crore and net interest income (NII) rose 26.1% to ₹2,945.9 crore, Zee Business reported. Both numbers beat the channel’s estimates. Net interest margin (NIM) came in at 3.33%. Gross NPAs eased to 1.52% of loans from 1.62% in the March quarter, and net NPAs to 0.18%. Fresh slippages fell 37.8% to ₹409.48 crore.

Management’s guidance: Kotak Neo’s Q1 summary shows gross advances up 15% to ₹2.81 trillion and deposits up 11.4% to ₹3.2 trillion. Management stuck with mid-teen loan growth guidance and a 50-60 basis point credit cost range. CEO KVS Manian repeated that he expects average NIM to improve by 5-6 basis points a quarter over the next three to four quarters. Non-resident deposits crossed ₹1 trillion, roughly 31% of all deposits. That figure matters more than usual this quarter, because Federal Bank was actively raising FCNR(B) deposits.

Our checklist for Friday:

• NIM versus the promised path: Cofacto’s preview treats this as the number to watch. It points out that management warned the path wouldn’t be a straight line, and that leveraged FCNR deposits could dilute margins a little in the near term. A figure under 3.33% wouldn’t by itself break the guidance, but how management explains it will count.
• Credit cost and MFI stress: Q1 credit cost was 41 basis points annualised, under the 50-60 bps through-cycle target, per Cofacto. Management said microfinance stress was easing but wasn’t ready to change its credit cost guidance yet.
• CASA ratio: 32.23% in Q1, up 188 basis points from a year earlier, against a longer-term goal of about 36% (Cofacto).
• New data: Federal Bank was among the banks yet to file a provisional Q2 business update in Moat & Margin’s scoreboard of filings. That means Friday will also be the first time the market sees its Q2 loan and deposit growth.

Federal Bank is the one bank on Friday’s list where the share price already reflects a lot of good news. It is within 10% of its 52-week high, so the margin print has to back up the guidance, not just meet it.

Punjab National Bank: a weak PSU tape, a solid business update

October 15 close: PNB dropped 2.91% (₹3.45) to ₹115.05, after touching a high of ₹118.79 and a low of ₹114.63, per Bhavcopy.live’s NSE data. Volume was 1.72 crore shares, lower than 2.16 crore on October 14. The PSU Bank index fell 1.55% the same day, so much of this looks like a sector-wide sell-off rather than a red flag specific to PNB before results.

When the numbers land: PNB informed the exchanges that its board meets on Friday, October 16, to approve Q2 and H1 FY27 results, according to PSU Connect. Another filing, dated October 13, sets an analyst call for 6:15 PM IST that day, as reproduced on BazaarWatch.

Last quarter: PNB’s Q1 FY27 net profit shot up 214% year-on-year to ₹5,253 crore, but NII grew only about 2% to ₹10,798 crore, The Economic Times reported. Gross NPAs came down to 2.78% from 3.78% a year earlier, and net NPAs to 0.26%. Bad-loan provisions doubled to ₹792 crore from ₹396 crore. The capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.13%.

Business update and guidance: PNB’s provisional numbers showed Q2 deposits up 9.9% year-on-year, its best growth in four quarters, and advances up 14.8%, the highest in six quarters, Business Standard reported. On a sequential basis, deposits rose 3% and advances 5.5%. Speaking to CNBC-TV18 in July, MD and CEO Ashok Chandra said margins had bottomed in the June quarter. Global NIM was 2.5%, and he expected another 4-5 basis points of improvement in the quarter. He held full-year guidance at 12-13% credit growth, 9-10% deposit growth and a 2.6-2.7% NIM, and expected the credit-deposit ratio to touch about 75-76% this year.

Our checklist for Friday:

• NII growth: The roughly 2% NII growth in Q1 was the soft spot. With advances up 14.8%, the market wants to see NII start catching up with loan growth.
• NIM: Does the margin move from 2.5% towards the 2.6-2.7% full-year range the CEO talked about?
• Credit-deposit ratio: Moat & Margin’s arithmetic on PNB’s filing puts loans at 75.6% of deposits, already within the bank’s 75-76% target for the year. Listen for any comment on when deposit mobilisation picks up again.
• Provisions: Do they stay near Q1’s ₹792 crore, or come down as slippages stay low?

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank: growth is a given, credit cost isn’t

October 15 close: Ujjivan SFB slipped 0.98% to ₹64.50, in a range of ₹64.30 to ₹66.40, per Bhavcopy.live. Volume jumped to 1.99 crore shares from 94.3 lakh on October 14, more than double (our calculation). Even so, the stock was still up 3.53% for the week.

When the numbers land: Ujjivan’s exchange filing fixes its Q2 and H1 FY27 analyst call for October 16 at 5:00 PM IST (NSE filing). Carol Furtado, whole-time director and interim CEO, is among the management team on the call.

Last quarter: Q1 FY27 net profit almost tripled to ₹317 crore, Financial Express reported. NII rose 39% to a record ₹1,186 crore and NIM widened to 8.5% from 7.7%. Credit cost dropped 43% to ₹127 crore. Management revised its FY27 credit cost guidance to 0.9-1.0% of average total assets, lifted return on assets guidance to 1.8-2.0%, and guided for 25% advances growth.

What’s already out: Ujjivan’s provisional Q2 figures showed the gross loan book up 32.1% year-on-year to ₹45,699 crore and total deposits up 29.2% to ₹50,649 crore, as tabulated by PSU Connect. The CASA ratio dipped to 26.0% from 26.9% in Q1. Secured loans rose to 52.0% of the book. Gross NPA improved to 2.10% from 2.17% a quarter earlier, portfolio at risk (PAR) was 3.57%, and micro-banking collection efficiency was 99.72%. In other words, loan growth is already running well ahead of the 25% full-year guidance.

Our checklist for Friday:

• Credit cost: Can it stay inside the 0.9-1.0% guidance while the group loan book, which includes microfinance, keeps expanding? Group loans were up 19.5% year-on-year, per PSU Connect’s segment table.
• NIM: Secured loans are now 52% of the book, and they usually earn lower yields. The question is whether the 8.5% Q1 margin holds or softens.
• Cost of funds: The CASA ratio is down and loans are at about 90% of deposits on Moat & Margin’s arithmetic, so deposit costs are where the pressure sits.

Ujjivan’s provisional numbers already showed the growth. On Friday the question is what that growth cost: credit cost and margin will decide the stock’s reaction more than the loan book does.

The sector picture: profits up, margins squeezed

Bloomberg consensus estimates point to 19.6% year-on-year growth in banking-system net profit to about ₹1 trillion in Q2 FY27, according to a report on Rediff Business. Public-sector bank profits are seen rising 14.4% to ₹46,861 crore, and private banks 23.2%. Small finance banks are expected to grow the fastest, with aggregate profit up 92.9% to ₹1,489 crore. Jefferies expects heavy FCNR(B) inflows to trim NIMs by 4-5 basis points this quarter. Motilal Oswal thinks PSU bank margins will stay range-bound, since those banks raised relatively less FCNR(B) money as a share of deposits.

Business Standard reports that Indian banks raised nearly $133 billion through FCNR(B) deposits under the RBI’s concessional swap window, which shut on August 31. RBI data showed banking-system credit growth of 18.1% year-on-year as of September 15, with deposits growing 17.3%. That’s why we expect every bank on Friday’s list to be judged on margins first and loan growth second.

Why Saturday’s big banks shape Friday’s trade

Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank all report on Saturday, October 17, per CNBC-TV18’s calendar. The same Bloomberg consensus (via Rediff) has HDFC Bank’s profit up 6.9% to ₹19,918 crore, ICICI Bank’s up 15.9% to ₹14,323 crore and Axis Bank’s up 40.7% to ₹7,160 crore. All of that comes after Friday’s close. Traders may not want to carry big Bank Nifty positions over the weekend, which could make Friday’s mid-tier results the main banking trade of the day.

Levels, timing and the trades we’re watching

• Bank Nifty levels: SBI Securities’ Sudeep Shah, quoted by CNBC-TV18, sees immediate support at 55,200-55,300; a break below that range points to 54,900. Resistance is at 56,300-56,400, and a decisive move above it could open the way to 56,800. CNBC-TV18 also marked 56,000 as the most important upside level and said bulls would want 55,500 to now act as support.
• Timing: The Federal Bank call is at 3:30 PM IST, according to Cofacto’s preview, right as regular cash-market hours end. Ujjivan’s call is at 5:00 PM and PNB’s at 6:15 PM. For at least two of the three, the full price reaction may only show up on Monday.
• PSU versus private rotation: PNB’s 2.91% fall came alongside a weak PSU Bank index while private banks rose. A clean PNB result would test whether Thursday’s rotation was about positioning rather than fundamentals.
• Focus on the right metric: For all three banks, the headline profit tells you less than NIM, credit cost and NII growth measured against loan growth. Our guide on how to analyse quarterly results walks through how to read these numbers.
• Risk: Mid-sized and small banks can move sharply on results day. Size positions for gap risk and use stop losses, especially in a lower-priced, high-volume stock like Ujjivan.

None of Friday’s three results will move the Bank Nifty the way Saturday’s heavyweights can. What they will give us is the first full Q2 read on how FCNR(B) money, PSU margin guidance and small finance bank credit costs are actually playing out, before the biggest lenders report.

This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Check company filings on NSE/BSE before trading.