Samvat 2082 Nifty Returns, October 26, 2026: Down About 13%, the Weakest Samvat Since 2014

Samvat 2082 Nifty returns are heading for a grim finish. With under 15 days left before Samvat 2083 begins, the Nifty is down around 13 per cent for the Hindu calendar year, which BusinessLine reports makes it the worst Samvat for investors since 2014. The year started with Muhurat trading on October 21, 2025, as Business Standard noted at the time.

How bad is a 13% Samvat 2082 fall?

Put it next to recent history and it stands out. According to BusinessLine, the previous weakest Samvat of this period was 2078 (November 2021 to October 2022), when the Nifty slipped 1.4 per cent through rate hikes, high inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war. Samvat 2080 returned 24.6 per cent, and Samvat 2077, the post-Covid rebound year, gave 40.2 per cent. From Samvat 2071 to 2081 the average return was about 12 per cent.

So we are not looking at a mild off year. A 13 per cent drop is roughly the same size as an average good year, only in the other direction.

The last week made it worse

The holiday-shortened week to October 23 added to the pain. Business Today’s weekly review shows the Nifty 50 down 2.4 per cent, the Sensex down 2.1 per cent and Nifty Bank down 2.8 per cent. The broader market took a much harder hit: the Nifty Midcap 150 fell 5.5 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 250 lost 7.1 per cent, its steepest weekly fall since February 2025. Nifty IT, up 0.5 per cent, was the rare index in the green.

Flows were mixed. FIIs sold about ₹4,606 crore of shares on October 19 and 22 and bought about ₹1,909 crore on October 21 and 23, while DIIs bought roughly ₹10,941 crore over the week, according to the same report.

Why the mood is so heavy

Crude is the big one. Brent went past $117 a barrel during the week, per Business Today, and BusinessLine describes prices as inching towards $120. For an economy that leans on imports for its energy needs, as Geojit’s Gaurang Shah pointed out to Business Today, that feeds straight into worries about inflation, company margins and the rupee, which was trading just below 95 to the dollar after RBI support.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, told BusinessLine that the Nifty is back at levels seen in May 2026, with India VIX above 30. “This is the first time we are entering a Samvat period without visible signs of bottoming out,” he said. He added that a few heavyweights in IT and PSU banking have kept the index from showing how weak the wider market really is, and the midcap and smallcap numbers above back that up.

Levels and events for the coming week

Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, quoted by Business Today, sees 22,200 to 22,400 as the key support zone for the Nifty. A clear break below it could open the way to 21,700, while a sustained move above 22,900 could bring 23,300 into view. If you want to understand how traders build such zones, our guide to technical analysis for Indian stocks covers the basics.

The calendar is busy. L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel and Cipla report Q2 numbers on October 27, and HUL, Adani Ports and Hero MotoCorp are among the names on October 28. Abroad, the US Fed decides on October 28, the ECB on October 29 and the Bank of Japan on October 30. For how the year’s last week fed into this, see our October 23 market wrap, and for what the new Samvat’s opening session involves, our explainer on Muhurat trading 2026.

One honest takeaway: a bad Samvat says nothing certain about the next one. What it does tell us is that the market is heading into Diwali with crude, FII selling and earnings all still unresolved.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research or consult a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision.