Russian Oil Waiver for India (October 16-18): What Trump’s 60-Day Review Means for Refiners

The Russian oil waiver India’s refiners were hoping for arrived late on Friday, October 16, and by Sunday Washington was already calling it a pause rather than a pardon. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving the “sanctions, restrictions, and duties” under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a day before its 30-day enforcement deadline ran out, Business Standard reported. Trump had signed the law itself on September 18.

That matters because the law gave Washington the power to put tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas, and India sits at the top of that list. The waiver isn’t specific to India, and China could benefit too.

Why the Russian oil waiver India got is only a 60-day reprieve

On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take up to 60 days to study the effect. “I think the president wants to take the 60-day period of time to sort of analyse what imposing both sanctions and tariffs will mean to the global economy, and even to the US economy,” he said, as BusinessLine reported.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was blunter on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday: “No sanctions were lifted on Friday.” He also said the US had asked European allies to put secondary sanctions on China and India for buying Russian oil, and they refused.

The detail we’d read twice: the order has no fixed end date. It says the waivers stay in place until the President or the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative, decides further action is needed. So the 60 days are a review window, not a countdown to automatic tariffs, as Financial Express pointed out. That cuts both ways. Nothing snaps back on day 61, but nothing stops a decision earlier either.

How much Russian crude India actually buys

These figures are from the Business Standard (PTI) report, citing ship-tracking data and Kpler.

• India is the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, against 1.2 million bpd for China.
• In September India took about 1.82 million bpd, compared with about 1.49 million bpd for China.
• Kpler expects October imports to hold at around 1.8-1.9 million bpd.
• That is well below the mid-year peak of 2.6 million bpd in June and 2.57 million bpd in July. September’s volume works out to roughly 30% lower than June’s.
• Before the Ukraine war, Russian oil was around 2% or less of India’s crude imports. At times since, it has been 40-50%.
• In September 2026, Urals crude averaged a $23 a barrel discount to Brent, analysts said.

Analysts quoted in the report expect refiners to keep buying Russian crude at close to current levels now that the waiver is in place. The order also follows an October 9 US Treasury decision allowing Russian diesel sales worldwide, including into the US, until April 7, 2027.

What it means when markets open

For now the worst case, US tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil, is off the table. A $23 discount on a large share of the crude basket is real money for refiners, and steady supply helps the import bill. We covered how crude and the rupee moved through early October in our rupee and crude oil review.

The risk hasn’t gone away, though. Rubio said India had “voluntarily diversified” its energy sources but still buys a lot of Russian oil, and that countries can’t switch suppliers overnight. If tariffs do come later, exporters face fresh uncertainty over access to the US market, and the current order doesn’t say what any penalty would look like. Our guide to oil-sensitive stocks lists the sectors that usually react first when crude headlines change.

Trading resumes on Monday, October 19, but the week is short: Tuesday, October 20 is a market holiday for Dussehra, ET Markets noted.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research or consult a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision.