Nifty YTD Return 2026 at -13.87%: What’s Behind India’s Underperformance

India’s Nifty YTD return for 2026 had sunk to -13.87% by Friday, 9 October, which puts us among the weakest major markets anywhere this year. The Nifty 50 ended that session at 22,520.45, roughly 14.60% under its January peak of 26,373.20, The Economic Times reported. Then on Monday, 12 October, it shed another 157.10 points and closed at 22,363.35.

Nifty YTD return 2026: how we got here

Eight losing weeks on the trot, one green week to 9 October, and then straight back into the red on Monday. That’s the short version. And it isn’t just the big names. The Nifty 50 gave up 6.03% in September, but the Nifty Midcap 150 did worse, falling 7.90% that month, as per a YES Securities outlook quoted by India Today.

The numbers that matter

• Nifty 50 YTD (to 9 Oct): -13.87%
• Gap from the January peak of 26,373.20: -14.60%
• FPI net selling in 2026: roughly ₹3.04 lakh crore, of which ₹44,166 crore came in October up to 9 October (NSDL data, via Moneycontrol)
• FPI outflow for all of 2025: roughly ₹1.66 lakh crore
• US 10-year Treasury yield: above 5.2%

Why India is lagging

Ask most analysts and they’ll point overseas, not at home. Foreign money is leaving because of global rates, not because India’s economy has stalled. V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, put it to ET this way: the market “is getting impacted not by domestic macroeconomic stress, but by the highly elevated US bond yields.” When a risk-free US yield sits above 5.2%, his argument goes, a foreign fund has little reason to stay in Indian equities. Hence the selling that began in September and picked up pace in October.

Oil and the rupee make it worse. Expensive crude fattens India’s import bill. A weaker rupee eats into the dollar returns foreign investors take home, even on days when share prices don’t move much.

A 14% fall driven mainly by global yields and foreign flows is a different animal from one driven by collapsing earnings. That is why the Q2 results season matters so much now.

What this means for investors

If US yields are the real driver, then the turn will probably come from global rates and crude, not from some piece of Indian data. Vijayakumar has said valuations in parts of the market are now back to fair levels. For long-term investors, the thing to watch is Q2 earnings and whether profits are actually holding. We track the daily moves on our Stock Market Today India hub, and you can read how FPI outflows crossed ₹3 lakh crore.

Sources: The Economic Times, Moneycontrol (PTI/NSDL), India Today. This is not investment advice.