Rupee and Crude Oil, October 5-16, 2026: From a Record Low to Below 95 as Brent Stays High

Two prices hung over every session. Our look at the rupee and crude oil in October 2026 covers the ten trading days from October 5 to 16. The rupee went from a record closing low to its first close below 95 in 38 days. Brent crude barely gave an inch: in every report we found but one, it was above $100 a barrel.

Crude moves through the day, so Brent levels are as quoted at the time of each report. Stock moves are from NSE bhavcopies.

Rupee and crude oil in October 2026: the rupee’s U-turn

The low came on October 8. According to PTI, the rupee recorded its lowest-ever closing level of 96.88 to the dollar that day. A day earlier, as the RBI raised rates, India Today reported it had slid to 96.8450 during trade.

The RBI then moved. PTI said it announced a set of measures on October 10 to curb dollar demand in the spot market. Business Standard listed them: a dedicated dollar window for state-owned oil companies, tighter currency-derivatives rules and a higher daily cash reserve requirement for banks. On Monday, October 12, the first session after, the rupee strengthened nearly 1% to close at 95.78, Business Standard reported.

It kept going. PTI reported six straight gains to a close of 94.89 on October 16, and a gain of more than 2% over six sessions from the record low. The Economic Times put Friday’s close at 94.96 and said the rupee gained about 1.9% in the week, its biggest weekly gain in seven months, and closed below 95 for the first time in 38 days. The two closes differ slightly because the outlets use different reference rates.

The defence had a cost. PTI said India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $8.578 billion to $726.027 billion in the week ended October 9, after a $12.952 billion drop the week before.

Brent: high, and jumpy

Crude didn’t follow the rupee’s script. Brent as quoted in reports:

• Oct 6: down 1.65% to $98.66, below the $100 mark (India Today).
• Oct 8: up 4.25% to $104.5, the day the Nifty hit a 21-month low (PTI).
• Oct 9: down 1.32% to $102.9 (PTI).
• Oct 12: up to $106 (CNBC-TV18).
• Oct 14: above $107, per BusinessLine.
• Oct 15: down 2.06% to $103.87 (India Today).
• Oct 16: down 0.34% at $105.56 in futures trade (PTI).

So Brent was quoted a little under $100 on October 6 and around $105 by October 16. BusinessLine tied the October 14 level to fresh attacks in the Gulf and reports of tanker strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, which kept a supply-risk premium in the price.

The rupee recovered more than 2% from its record low in six sessions. Brent was quoted higher on October 16 than on October 6.

How it showed up in stocks

The clearest example was InterGlobe Aviation, which fell from ₹4,929.90 on October 1 to ₹4,686.90 on October 16 on NSE, down 4.93%. CNBC-TV18 named IndiGo and Asian Paints among the oil-sensitive stocks that fell nearly 1% each on October 12. Asian Paints went from ₹2,407.00 to ₹2,331.90 over the same stretch, down 3.12%.

Interestingly, IT’s results-driven rally came while the rupee was strengthening. A stronger rupee means fewer rupees per dollar earned, so IT rallied despite the currency.

What we are watching

We think the rupee’s recovery has a lot to do with the RBI’s measures, and the falling reserves show that support costs money. Whether it holds may depend on crude and on foreign flows, which we track in our FII DII flows October 2026 update. For the day the RBI’s rupee package hit banks and bonds, see our Dalal Street recap for October 12, and our RBI October 2026 policy explainer covers the rate hike itself.

Sources: PTI (via ThePrint and The Hindu), The Economic Times, Business Standard, India Today, BusinessLine and CNBC-TV18 reports from October 6 to 16, 2026; NSE equity bhavcopies for October 1 and 16, 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please do your own research or consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.